Wisconsin was flying high at the end of January, but poor rebounding and individuals regressing have caused the Badgers to plummet.
By Nathan Denzin, BADGER STRIPES
https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4317615640364969 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});At one point this year the Wisconsin Badgers were ranked at No. 6 in the entire country… but now just a few weeks later they aren’t ranked at all.
AJ Storr was (and still is) a revelation, giving Wisconsin a super athletic 3-guard with a solid jumper and defense. John Blackwell burst onto the scene as a premiere freshman in the Big Ten, earning three Big Ten freshman of the week honors by mid-January. And the rest of the roster was still playing their game around those two too.
Max Klesmit started to emerge as a bona fide star, Chucky Hepburn was able to facilitate more, Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl were back to dominating teams inside. At one point after winning seven of their first eight games in conference the Badgers had a two game lead over Purdue.
https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4317615640364969 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});But times have changed. The Badgers have lost five of their last six games, with their only win a grind against Ohio State who sits second to last in the Big Ten conference.
The ugliest game of the bunch was a 22-point loss at Rutgers, but Wisconsin has just looked off in about every game since losing to Nebraska in overtime.
So what has gone wrong the last five games, and can the Badgers find their footing again before the Big Ten tournament, then March Madness rolls around?
https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4317615640364969 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});Regression and injuries taking a toll
It might be fair to say Wisconsin was playing at their highest possible peak at the end of December and beginning of January, but players have begun to regress.
Perhaps the largest regression is from the Badgers biggest player, Crowl. Big Steve was shooting the rock at over 60% prior to conference play, but has only shot about 50% in the 15 conference games so far this year. Essentially that entire dip has come from 2-point range, where Crowl has fallen from over 63% down to 53%.
Crowl has also been frozen out from the offensive boards, netting three fewer offensive rebounds during conference play than he had in non-conference. That lack of production on the offensive boards has trickled down to the bench too, where Connor Esseigan, Nolan Winter and John Blackwell have all failed to reach their non-conference offensive rebound numbers.
Speaking of John Blackwell, he is another player who needs to step his game back up. Blackwell is not shooting the ball as much in conference play, and certainly not hitting from deep the way he was in non-conference play.
Blackwell shot an insane 52% from three point range before Big Ten play, and while that likely isn’t a pace he could keep all season, the freshman is down to 39% since getting into conference games. It’s not just his shooting either – Blackwell has still failed to put up his non-conference free throw, rebound, steal and block total despite appearing in two more games.
One other big factor here, the injury bug has hit Wisconsin guards pretty hard over the past few weeks. Kamari McGee has been out since January 26 with a foot injury, and still has no timetable for return. Blackwell also missed two games during this stretch with an injury of his own, while Issac Lindsey has reportedly dealt with a nagging injury of his own.
As much as individual performances have slipped, Wisconsin has had huge team issues in the past six games as well.
https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4317615640364969 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});What the happened to the rebounding?
Looking at the advanced stats for Wisconsin, one thing in particular stands out. Before this poor stretch of six games Wisconsin posted a near 55% true rebounding percentage, which means Wisconsin (on average) earned 5% more rebounds than their opponents in a given game. During this poor skid, that number is down to about 48%.
Expanding on those numbers a little bit, Wisconsin posted a near 31% offensive rebounding percentage before the skid, and have just a 24% ORB in the last six games.
One of the biggest edges the Badgers held against opponents was their rebounding, and that has fallen off a cliff (compared to early season marks). Fewer offensive rebounds have hurt in particular, as Wisconsin’s offensive rating has fallen from 115 to 99 despite a similar number of shots taken throughout the game.
That is likely a result of missing offensive putbacks by a guy like Crowl, who has also seen his shooting percentage and overall scoring dip.
Another potential reason for the ORTG dip is a lack of free throw attempts. Before the recent slump Wisconsin got to the line about 16 times a game, and that number is now just under 13.
https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4317615640364969 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});How do we get back to winning?
Head Coach Greg Gard has talked a lot about the defense slipping during this skid, but the numbers tell a slightly different story. While the Badgers have lost about 15 points in offensive rating, they’ve only slipped down about 7 points in defensive rating.
In order to really get this team firing before March, Gard is going to need to figure out how to get those offensive rebounds back and push Crowl and Blackwell to return to their pre-2024 form.
Wisconsin’s next chance to right the ship is Tuesday at 8 p.m. against Maryland.
Badger Stripes is a sports news organization that provides in-depth coverage of Wisconsin athletics. Follow us on Facebook.
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